RECAP:
Proline:
Last week: 1/3
Season to date: 5/18(28% correct) - Avg. win = 2.65 - Expected return = 0.74
Miami was up until a last second touchdown by the Texans, but i was completely off on the Giants game as the Browns came out of nowhere for the upset.
Cent Sports:
Last week 2/6
Season to date: 7/19
Current Bankroll: $2.62 (+$0.10)
http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889
Sign up and see if you can out bet me if you dare.
I parlayed a Zona win with an over/under pick to save my week and keep me in the positive, otherwise my weak 2/6 performance would have been more evident.
THE GOODS:
Home team in bold.
Proline:
Dallas over St. Louis (1.55)
Romo may be playing after all and St. Louis was still trampled by Washington last week even though they managed to squeak out a victory. Dallas should take this one no problem.
Indianapolis over Green Bay (2.00)
Indianapolis is back on track after anhiliating the top ranked defense last week. Green Bay has been less than impressive this season and has yet to beat a decent team. This doesn't change as Indy takes this one.
Buffalo over San Diego (2.30)
These teams are pretty evenly matched so i am just going to go with the home team. Edwards is back and almost 100% whereas San Diego is missing chambers and has looked less than impressive on the road this year.
Cent Sports:
Carolina (-3) over New Orleans (even) - $0.45
NFC south teams are 12-1 at home and Carolina is looking to rebound after an embarrasing loss to the Bucs last week. Carolina gets back on track with a win this week.
Kansas City (+9) over Tennessee (-105) - $0.35
KC showed that they are a different team at home when they took down the Broncos a few weeks ago. Tennessee isn't a high scoring offense and 9 points is simply too much to give the road team here.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Week 6
RECAP:
Proline:
Last week: 2/3
Season to date: 4/15(27% correct) - Avg. win = 2.45 - Expected return = 0.66
Chicago annihilated Detroit and my upset special came through as Washington battled back from an early 14 point deficit to beat the Eagles. The Boys on PTI were touting Washington as the #2 best team in the NFL, I don't think i would go that far, but I don't think you'll see them getting 3.45 odds anymore. They had an insanely tough first 5 games to the season and game out a remarkable 4-1.
Cent Sports:
Last week 1/2
Season to date: 5/13
Current Bankroll: $2.52 (-$0.30) (I was at $3.07 until I lost 55 cents on stupid baseball)http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889
Sign up and see if you can out bet me if you dare.
Cinci easily covered, and Batimore would have if not for a late drive that was aided by a bogus roughing the passer penatly. The washington game was headed for the over but the game was scoreless in the last 7 minutes. Overall a good week of picks after stumbling out the gates.
THE GOODS:
Home team in Bold.
The odds are exceptional this week so heres some bonus picks!
Proline:
Miami over Houston (3.05) *Lock of the week*
Miami has knocked off San Diego and New England in convincing fashion the past two games, Houston is 0-4... how does this make sense?
Arizona over Dallas (3.45)
Zona' is a much better team at home and Dallas hasn't looked like the class of the NFC like many thought they would be. These odds are too good to pass up in what looks to be a shootout.
New York Giants over Cleveland (1.35)
The Giants are getting respectable odds once again against a struggling Cleveland team. The Giants are undefeated and still getting no respect. They have won with authority each week and this should be no exception.
Cent Sports:
St. Louis (+14) over Washington (-115) - $0.35
Washington is coming off two impressive victories and i just feel like this will be an off week for them.
Baltimore(+4) over Indianapolis (-110) - $0.45
Baltimore could very easily be the better team and are getting 4 points, even if they lose it should be within 3 against a struggling Colts team.
Green Bay (+3) over Seattle (-140) - $0.35
Green Bay has been slumping but there's nothing like the inept Seahawks to break that streak. Rodgers shoulder should be good to go and Green Bay should take this one.
New England (+5) over San Diego (-110) - $0.25
San Diego just lost a very unimpressive game againts the Dolphins and 5 points is too much to give to the Patriots regardless of whether Brady is out.
Chicago (-3) over Atlanta (-110) - $0.30
Both teams are 3-2 but the Falcons victories have come over teams like Detroit and Kansas City, whereas Chicago has face much stiffer competition. The Bears should be able to shut down Ryand and keep Turner in check resulting in a rather easy victory.
Carolina (+1.5) over Tampa Bay (-110) - $0.25
Carolina is simply the better team in my opinion. This divisional game should be close but Delhomme has Smith back and he should be able to outplay Garcia who is without Galloway.
Proline:
Last week: 2/3
Season to date: 4/15(27% correct) - Avg. win = 2.45 - Expected return = 0.66
Chicago annihilated Detroit and my upset special came through as Washington battled back from an early 14 point deficit to beat the Eagles. The Boys on PTI were touting Washington as the #2 best team in the NFL, I don't think i would go that far, but I don't think you'll see them getting 3.45 odds anymore. They had an insanely tough first 5 games to the season and game out a remarkable 4-1.
Cent Sports:
Last week 1/2
Season to date: 5/13
Current Bankroll: $2.52 (-$0.30) (I was at $3.07 until I lost 55 cents on stupid baseball)http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889
Sign up and see if you can out bet me if you dare.
Cinci easily covered, and Batimore would have if not for a late drive that was aided by a bogus roughing the passer penatly. The washington game was headed for the over but the game was scoreless in the last 7 minutes. Overall a good week of picks after stumbling out the gates.
THE GOODS:
Home team in Bold.
The odds are exceptional this week so heres some bonus picks!
Proline:
Miami over Houston (3.05) *Lock of the week*
Miami has knocked off San Diego and New England in convincing fashion the past two games, Houston is 0-4... how does this make sense?
Arizona over Dallas (3.45)
Zona' is a much better team at home and Dallas hasn't looked like the class of the NFC like many thought they would be. These odds are too good to pass up in what looks to be a shootout.
New York Giants over Cleveland (1.35)
The Giants are getting respectable odds once again against a struggling Cleveland team. The Giants are undefeated and still getting no respect. They have won with authority each week and this should be no exception.
Cent Sports:
St. Louis (+14) over Washington (-115) - $0.35
Washington is coming off two impressive victories and i just feel like this will be an off week for them.
Baltimore(+4) over Indianapolis (-110) - $0.45
Baltimore could very easily be the better team and are getting 4 points, even if they lose it should be within 3 against a struggling Colts team.
Green Bay (+3) over Seattle (-140) - $0.35
Green Bay has been slumping but there's nothing like the inept Seahawks to break that streak. Rodgers shoulder should be good to go and Green Bay should take this one.
New England (+5) over San Diego (-110) - $0.25
San Diego just lost a very unimpressive game againts the Dolphins and 5 points is too much to give to the Patriots regardless of whether Brady is out.
Chicago (-3) over Atlanta (-110) - $0.30
Both teams are 3-2 but the Falcons victories have come over teams like Detroit and Kansas City, whereas Chicago has face much stiffer competition. The Bears should be able to shut down Ryand and keep Turner in check resulting in a rather easy victory.
Carolina (+1.5) over Tampa Bay (-110) - $0.25
Carolina is simply the better team in my opinion. This divisional game should be close but Delhomme has Smith back and he should be able to outplay Garcia who is without Galloway.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Week 5
RECAP:
Proline:
Last week: 0/3
Season to date: 2/12(17% correct) - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return = 0.38
The ties just do not seem to be working out for me this year, so I will avoid them at all cost for the next couple of weeks. This week I will stick to more sure things and try to improve on this abysmal record.
Cent Sports:
Last week 2/3
Season to date: 4/11
Current Bankroll: $3.37 (+$0.95) (I was at $3.72 until I lost 35 cents on baseball)
http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889
Sign up and see if you can out bet me if you dare.
Maybe I should just stick to the point spread cause thats where I am making my money. Palmer's injury cost me the one pick, and if i had been allowed to cancel my bet I would be up another $0.60 at least. Either way my bankroll is still increasing on a weekly basis.
THE GOODS:
Home team in bold.
Proline:
Chicago over Detroit (1.80)
Chicago was able to handle a strong Eagles team last week, albeit without Westbrook, but the Lions are a worse team regardless. Take the Bears and take this one to the bank.
Buffalo over Arizona (2.45)
Boldin's injury should put a damper on the Zona passing attack, allowing the Bills and their 6th ranked pass defense to double team the Fitz. Buffalo has looked strong all year and the Cardinals record is inflated by some weak early opponents. Look for the upstart Bills to improve to 5-0 (who'd of thought that?).
Washington over Philadelphia (3.45)
Westbrook, if he plays, won't be near 100% and the Redskins looked too strong last week against the Cowboys to warrant these kind of odds. If Westbrook plays, bet with caution, otherwise pounce at the opportunity to that these odds present. Philly is a hit or miss team and this could be a miss against an underrated Redskins team.
Cent Sports:
Batimore(+3) over Tennessee (-125) - $0.35
Baltimore put the hurt on Mendenhall and the Steelers last week, demonstrating just how strong their defense is. This battle of the undefeated teams should be a close one so the 3 points given to the Ravens makes them all the more appealing. Flacco should be able to pull this one out at home.
Cincinatti (+17) over Dallas (-120) - $0.50
The Bengals showed they can play with the NFC east againts the Giants in week 3. Dallas has come back to earth after a loss to the Redskins and 17 points is simply too many points to be given to the home team here, especially if Palmer returns to the lineup. Even if Fitzpatrick gets the go ahead I think the line is worth it though.
Washington versus Philadelphia over 42.5 (-110) - $0.35
Call this one a hunch, I just suspect this one will be a shootout, much like the rest of the interdivisional games in the NFC east have been so far this year.
Proline:
Last week: 0/3
Season to date: 2/12(17% correct) - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return = 0.38
The ties just do not seem to be working out for me this year, so I will avoid them at all cost for the next couple of weeks. This week I will stick to more sure things and try to improve on this abysmal record.
Cent Sports:
Last week 2/3
Season to date: 4/11
Current Bankroll: $3.37 (+$0.95) (I was at $3.72 until I lost 35 cents on baseball)
http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889
Sign up and see if you can out bet me if you dare.
Maybe I should just stick to the point spread cause thats where I am making my money. Palmer's injury cost me the one pick, and if i had been allowed to cancel my bet I would be up another $0.60 at least. Either way my bankroll is still increasing on a weekly basis.
THE GOODS:
Home team in bold.
Proline:
Chicago over Detroit (1.80)
Chicago was able to handle a strong Eagles team last week, albeit without Westbrook, but the Lions are a worse team regardless. Take the Bears and take this one to the bank.
Buffalo over Arizona (2.45)
Boldin's injury should put a damper on the Zona passing attack, allowing the Bills and their 6th ranked pass defense to double team the Fitz. Buffalo has looked strong all year and the Cardinals record is inflated by some weak early opponents. Look for the upstart Bills to improve to 5-0 (who'd of thought that?).
Washington over Philadelphia (3.45)
Westbrook, if he plays, won't be near 100% and the Redskins looked too strong last week against the Cowboys to warrant these kind of odds. If Westbrook plays, bet with caution, otherwise pounce at the opportunity to that these odds present. Philly is a hit or miss team and this could be a miss against an underrated Redskins team.
Cent Sports:
Batimore(+3) over Tennessee (-125) - $0.35
Baltimore put the hurt on Mendenhall and the Steelers last week, demonstrating just how strong their defense is. This battle of the undefeated teams should be a close one so the 3 points given to the Ravens makes them all the more appealing. Flacco should be able to pull this one out at home.
Cincinatti (+17) over Dallas (-120) - $0.50
The Bengals showed they can play with the NFC east againts the Giants in week 3. Dallas has come back to earth after a loss to the Redskins and 17 points is simply too many points to be given to the home team here, especially if Palmer returns to the lineup. Even if Fitzpatrick gets the go ahead I think the line is worth it though.
Washington versus Philadelphia over 42.5 (-110) - $0.35
Call this one a hunch, I just suspect this one will be a shootout, much like the rest of the interdivisional games in the NFC east have been so far this year.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Week 4
RECAP:
Proline:
Last week 0/3
Season to Date: 22% correct - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return - 0.50
All of my picks last week were longshots, Green Bay was never really in it, but the two tie games were both close. The Carolina-Minnesota game was all Panthers in the first half until Minnesota ran back a fumble to tie it at half, then Carolina got shut down and that was that. The Houston-Tennessee game could easily have been a tie if Houston (*cough* Andre Johnson *cough*) didn't choke and come away empty handed on two first and goal's from inside the five.
Cent Sports:
Last week: 1/3
Season to date: 2/8
Current Bankroll: $2.77 (-$0.21)
http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889
Sign up and see if you can out bet me if you dare.
What can i say, Chicago blew another late lead, letting Brian Griese somehow run an efficient two-minute drill; and Denver blew an early 21-3 lead before barely hanging on late. Fortuntely Cinci's offense came alive as i expected so i was able to cut my losses this week.
Proline
Green Bay over Tampa Bay (2.55)
Green Bay gets some crazy good odds once again as Tampa Bay should not be favored in this battle of the Bay's. Griese looked decent last week, but Rodgers is the better QB and it should show this weekend with Green Bay improving to 3-1.
Arizona over New York Jets (2.75)
The Cardinals have looked sharp with Warner at the helm and word on the street is that Zona stayed on the east coast all week to avoid any sort of jet lag from travelling. That combined with the Jets' shortened week from the monday nighter should tip this one is Arizona's favor.
Minnesota tie Tennesee (3.40)
Neither team is starting a QB under the age of 35 and both teams have great run defenses. This should be a low scoring affair and hopefully will be within 3 points.
Jacksonville avoided going to 0-3 last week against the Colts but 7.5 points is still too much to give a team that hasn't proven they can win in a tight divisional matchup against a Texans team that is still underrated in my opinion.
Cincinnati (-3.5) over Cleveland (-105) $0.60
Cincinnati finally showed they can still have some life left last week against the Giants, meanwhile Cleveland looks to be struggling as much as ever. If the Bengals offense can keep it up, 3.5 points should not be problem for them to cover at home.
Buffalo (-8.5) over St. Louis (-110) $0.45
Three words, Trent Green Concussed.
Proline:
Last week 0/3
Season to Date: 22% correct - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return - 0.50
All of my picks last week were longshots, Green Bay was never really in it, but the two tie games were both close. The Carolina-Minnesota game was all Panthers in the first half until Minnesota ran back a fumble to tie it at half, then Carolina got shut down and that was that. The Houston-Tennessee game could easily have been a tie if Houston (*cough* Andre Johnson *cough*) didn't choke and come away empty handed on two first and goal's from inside the five.
Cent Sports:
Last week: 1/3
Season to date: 2/8
Current Bankroll: $2.77 (-$0.21)
http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889
Sign up and see if you can out bet me if you dare.
What can i say, Chicago blew another late lead, letting Brian Griese somehow run an efficient two-minute drill; and Denver blew an early 21-3 lead before barely hanging on late. Fortuntely Cinci's offense came alive as i expected so i was able to cut my losses this week.
THE GOODS:
Home team in Bold
Proline
Green Bay over Tampa Bay (2.55)
Green Bay gets some crazy good odds once again as Tampa Bay should not be favored in this battle of the Bay's. Griese looked decent last week, but Rodgers is the better QB and it should show this weekend with Green Bay improving to 3-1.
Arizona over New York Jets (2.75)
The Cardinals have looked sharp with Warner at the helm and word on the street is that Zona stayed on the east coast all week to avoid any sort of jet lag from travelling. That combined with the Jets' shortened week from the monday nighter should tip this one is Arizona's favor.
Minnesota tie Tennesee (3.40)
Neither team is starting a QB under the age of 35 and both teams have great run defenses. This should be a low scoring affair and hopefully will be within 3 points.
Cent Sports
Houston (+7) over Jacksonville (-105) $0.35Jacksonville avoided going to 0-3 last week against the Colts but 7.5 points is still too much to give a team that hasn't proven they can win in a tight divisional matchup against a Texans team that is still underrated in my opinion.
Cincinnati (-3.5) over Cleveland (-105) $0.60
Cincinnati finally showed they can still have some life left last week against the Giants, meanwhile Cleveland looks to be struggling as much as ever. If the Bengals offense can keep it up, 3.5 points should not be problem for them to cover at home.
Buffalo (-8.5) over St. Louis (-110) $0.45
Three words, Trent Green Concussed.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Week 3 Tickets
I only put down $4 this week since the odds weren't great, but we'll see how things go...
$2 - Chi/GB/Cin-NYG over - $18.66
$2 - Hou-Ten tie/Car-Min tie/Den - $35.72
Season's Winnings to Date:
-$12.00
Also, check out The On Deck Circle for some exceptional sports talk.
$2 - Chi/GB/Cin-NYG over - $18.66
$2 - Hou-Ten tie/Car-Min tie/Den - $35.72
Season's Winnings to Date:
-$12.00
Also, check out The On Deck Circle for some exceptional sports talk.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Week 3
RECAP:
Proline:
Last week: 2/3
Season to Date: 33% correct - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return - 0.75
Overall, a pretty good week; if the afternoon games ended at half time, I would have been $80 on the plus side and been picking up tabs at the bar. Instead, I am left reeling by the fact Denver blew a 14 point lead and that if i had actually purchased the tickets i wrote down next to me (instead of forgetting the paper and reinventing them at the store) i would have won $43 regardless. Somehow such mistakes always give you the shaft.
Cent Sports
Last week: 0/2
Season to Date: 1/5
If Chicago didn't give up 17 straight points and blow their 17-3 lead, i would have saved some face. However, thanks to a hearty bet on the Bills to win straight up, my bankroll is still growing... up to $2.98 and counting. Let's hope I can work my way back to 50% this weekend.
THE GOODS:
Last week was an aberration as far as betting goes, and I am devasted I was unable to cash in. Anyways, bet with more caution this week, but here's who I like.
Home team in Bold
Proline:
Carolina tie Minnesota (3.20)
Peterson is looking like he won't be nearly 100% if he plays, and Steve Smith is coming off his 2 game suspension. With that being said, Minnesota is at home and will be playing desperate coming off a couple close losses. This one is fairly evenly matched and should be within 3 points.
Green Bay over Dallas (3.05)
Aaron Rodgers has looked stellar in his first two games as starter and with this Sunday night matchup being his biggest test, expect him to rise to the occassion. I see Green Bay quite similar to Philadelphia who kept Dallas close on the monday nighter, except we are now at Lambeau Field and Green Bay is getting too good of odds to pass up.
Houston tie Tennessee(3.60)
Tennessee always plays their divisional games tight and Houston, picked by many to make the postseason, is no exception. Expect this one to be a low scoring affair with it going either way... perfect for a tie pick.
Cent Sports:
Chicago (-3) over Tampa Bay (-110) $0.40
It's doubtful that Orton and the Bears will run away with this one, but they should be able to handle a 3 point spread at home against the Bucs. Griese is overmatched by a stellar as always Bears defense and with Matt Forte carrying the rock, there's always potential for a big play on the offense.
Denver (-6) over New Orleans (-105) $0.40
Denver is looking to be the Patriots of '08-'09 with their pass first offense. And so far, it seems to be working quite well. New Orleans doesn't put up much of a fight in the pass defense so Denver shouldn't have much trouble covering the spread in this one.
Cincinatti vs New York Giants over 42.0(-110) $0.65
The Bengal's offense may finally find some life against a defense that isn't the Titans or Ravens, and we saw last week how quickly the Giants can put up points against subpar teams like the Rams. Count on this one being high scoring, even if its one-sided.
That's all for now, tickets should be up some time Saturday... check back then.
Proline:
Last week: 2/3
Season to Date: 33% correct - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return - 0.75
Overall, a pretty good week; if the afternoon games ended at half time, I would have been $80 on the plus side and been picking up tabs at the bar. Instead, I am left reeling by the fact Denver blew a 14 point lead and that if i had actually purchased the tickets i wrote down next to me (instead of forgetting the paper and reinventing them at the store) i would have won $43 regardless. Somehow such mistakes always give you the shaft.
Cent Sports
Last week: 0/2
Season to Date: 1/5
If Chicago didn't give up 17 straight points and blow their 17-3 lead, i would have saved some face. However, thanks to a hearty bet on the Bills to win straight up, my bankroll is still growing... up to $2.98 and counting. Let's hope I can work my way back to 50% this weekend.
THE GOODS:
Last week was an aberration as far as betting goes, and I am devasted I was unable to cash in. Anyways, bet with more caution this week, but here's who I like.
Home team in Bold
Proline:
Carolina tie Minnesota (3.20)
Peterson is looking like he won't be nearly 100% if he plays, and Steve Smith is coming off his 2 game suspension. With that being said, Minnesota is at home and will be playing desperate coming off a couple close losses. This one is fairly evenly matched and should be within 3 points.
Green Bay over Dallas (3.05)
Aaron Rodgers has looked stellar in his first two games as starter and with this Sunday night matchup being his biggest test, expect him to rise to the occassion. I see Green Bay quite similar to Philadelphia who kept Dallas close on the monday nighter, except we are now at Lambeau Field and Green Bay is getting too good of odds to pass up.
Houston tie Tennessee(3.60)
Tennessee always plays their divisional games tight and Houston, picked by many to make the postseason, is no exception. Expect this one to be a low scoring affair with it going either way... perfect for a tie pick.
Cent Sports:
Chicago (-3) over Tampa Bay (-110) $0.40
It's doubtful that Orton and the Bears will run away with this one, but they should be able to handle a 3 point spread at home against the Bucs. Griese is overmatched by a stellar as always Bears defense and with Matt Forte carrying the rock, there's always potential for a big play on the offense.
Denver (-6) over New Orleans (-105) $0.40
Denver is looking to be the Patriots of '08-'09 with their pass first offense. And so far, it seems to be working quite well. New Orleans doesn't put up much of a fight in the pass defense so Denver shouldn't have much trouble covering the spread in this one.
Cincinatti vs New York Giants over 42.0(-110) $0.65
The Bengal's offense may finally find some life against a defense that isn't the Titans or Ravens, and we saw last week how quickly the Giants can put up points against subpar teams like the Rams. Count on this one being high scoring, even if its one-sided.
That's all for now, tickets should be up some time Saturday... check back then.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Week 2 Tickets
Normally I don't bet this much in a single week, but the action was just too good so I ended up throwing down a sawbuck's worth a tickets. Let's hope I (and anyone who follows my advice) will be playing with house money for the rest of the season...
$2 -GB/NYG/DEN - $14.86
$2 - NE/TEN/DEN - $35.76
$2 - BUF/NWO/PHI-DAL tie - $65.92
$2 - GB/SF/BAL-HOU tie - $69.12
$2 - CHI/BUF/NYG/ATL - $136.38
Buffalo getting higher odds than detroit is just ludacris in my mind and both them and Green Bay have exceptional odds.
Season's Winnings to Date
-$2.00
$2 -GB/NYG/DEN - $14.86
$2 - NE/TEN/DEN - $35.76
$2 - BUF/NWO/PHI-DAL tie - $65.92
$2 - GB/SF/BAL-HOU tie - $69.12
$2 - CHI/BUF/NYG/ATL - $136.38
Buffalo getting higher odds than detroit is just ludacris in my mind and both them and Green Bay have exceptional odds.
Season's Winnings to Date
-$2.00
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