Week 3

RECAP:

Proline:
Last week: 2/3
Season to Date: 33% correct - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return - 0.75

Overall, a pretty good week; if the afternoon games ended at half time, I would have been $80 on the plus side and been picking up tabs at the bar. Instead, I am left reeling by the fact Denver blew a 14 point lead and that if i had actually purchased the tickets i wrote down next to me (instead of forgetting the paper and reinventing them at the store) i would have won $43 regardless. Somehow such mistakes always give you the shaft.

Cent Sports
Last week: 0/2
Season to Date: 1/5

If Chicago didn't give up 17 straight points and blow their 17-3 lead, i would have saved some face. However, thanks to a hearty bet on the Bills to win straight up, my bankroll is still growing... up to $2.98 and counting. Let's hope I can work my way back to 50% this weekend.


THE GOODS:
Last week was an aberration as far as betting goes, and I am devasted I was unable to cash in. Anyways, bet with more caution this week, but here's who I like.

Home team in Bold

Proline:

Carolina tie Minnesota (3.20)
Peterson is looking like he won't be nearly 100% if he plays, and Steve Smith is coming off his 2 game suspension. With that being said, Minnesota is at home and will be playing desperate coming off a couple close losses. This one is fairly evenly matched and should be within 3 points.

Green Bay over Dallas (3.05)
Aaron Rodgers has looked stellar in his first two games as starter and with this Sunday night matchup being his biggest test, expect him to rise to the occassion. I see Green Bay quite similar to Philadelphia who kept Dallas close on the monday nighter, except we are now at Lambeau Field and Green Bay is getting too good of odds to pass up.

Houston tie Tennessee(3.60)
Tennessee always plays their divisional games tight and Houston, picked by many to make the postseason, is no exception. Expect this one to be a low scoring affair with it going either way... perfect for a tie pick.


Cent Sports:

Chicago (-3) over Tampa Bay (-110) $0.40
It's doubtful that Orton and the Bears will run away with this one, but they should be able to handle a 3 point spread at home against the Bucs. Griese is overmatched by a stellar as always Bears defense and with Matt Forte carrying the rock, there's always potential for a big play on the offense.

Denver (-6) over New Orleans (-105) $0.40
Denver is looking to be the Patriots of '08-'09 with their pass first offense. And so far, it seems to be working quite well. New Orleans doesn't put up much of a fight in the pass defense so Denver shouldn't have much trouble covering the spread in this one.

Cincinatti vs New York Giants over 42.0(-110) $0.65
The Bengal's offense may finally find some life against a defense that isn't the Titans or Ravens, and we saw last week how quickly the Giants can put up points against subpar teams like the Rams. Count on this one being high scoring, even if its one-sided.

That's all for now, tickets should be up some time Saturday... check back then.