Week 4

RECAP:


Proline:
Last week 0/3
Season to Date: 22% correct - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return - 0.50


All of my picks last week were longshots, Green Bay was never really in it, but the two tie games were both close. The Carolina-Minnesota game was all Panthers in the first half until Minnesota ran back a fumble to tie it at half, then Carolina got shut down and that was that. The Houston-Tennessee game could easily have been a tie if Houston (*cough* Andre Johnson *cough*) didn't choke and come away empty handed on two first and goal's from inside the five.


Cent Sports:
Last week: 1/3
Season to date: 2/8
Current Bankroll: $2.77 (-$0.21)
http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889
Sign up and see if you can out bet me if you dare.


What can i say, Chicago blew another late lead, letting Brian Griese somehow run an efficient two-minute drill; and Denver blew an early 21-3 lead before barely hanging on late. Fortuntely Cinci's offense came alive as i expected so i was able to cut my losses this week.

THE GOODS:
Home team in Bold

Proline


Green Bay over Tampa Bay (2.55)
Green Bay gets some crazy good odds once again as Tampa Bay should not be favored in this battle of the Bay's. Griese looked decent last week, but Rodgers is the better QB and it should show this weekend with Green Bay improving to 3-1.

Arizona over New York Jets (2.75)
The Cardinals have looked sharp with Warner at the helm and word on the street is that Zona stayed on the east coast all week to avoid any sort of jet lag from travelling. That combined with the Jets' shortened week from the monday nighter should tip this one is Arizona's favor.

Minnesota tie Tennesee (3.40)
Neither team is starting a QB under the age of 35 and both teams have great run defenses. This should be a low scoring affair and hopefully will be within 3 points.

Cent Sports

Houston (+7) over Jacksonville (-105) $0.35
Jacksonville avoided going to 0-3 last week against the Colts but 7.5 points is still too much to give a team that hasn't proven they can win in a tight divisional matchup against a Texans team that is still underrated in my opinion.


Cincinnati (-3.5) over Cleveland (-105) $0.60
Cincinnati finally showed they can still have some life left last week against the Giants, meanwhile Cleveland looks to be struggling as much as ever. If the Bengals offense can keep it up, 3.5 points should not be problem for them to cover at home.

Buffalo (-8.5) over St. Louis (-110) $0.45
Three words, Trent Green Concussed.

Week 3 Tickets

I only put down $4 this week since the odds weren't great, but we'll see how things go...

$2 - Chi/GB/Cin-NYG over - $18.66
$2 - Hou-Ten tie/Car-Min tie/Den - $35.72

Season's Winnings to Date:
-$12.00

Also, check out The On Deck Circle for some exceptional sports talk.

Week 3

RECAP:

Proline:
Last week: 2/3
Season to Date: 33% correct - Avg. win = 2.27 - Expected return - 0.75

Overall, a pretty good week; if the afternoon games ended at half time, I would have been $80 on the plus side and been picking up tabs at the bar. Instead, I am left reeling by the fact Denver blew a 14 point lead and that if i had actually purchased the tickets i wrote down next to me (instead of forgetting the paper and reinventing them at the store) i would have won $43 regardless. Somehow such mistakes always give you the shaft.

Cent Sports
Last week: 0/2
Season to Date: 1/5

If Chicago didn't give up 17 straight points and blow their 17-3 lead, i would have saved some face. However, thanks to a hearty bet on the Bills to win straight up, my bankroll is still growing... up to $2.98 and counting. Let's hope I can work my way back to 50% this weekend.


THE GOODS:
Last week was an aberration as far as betting goes, and I am devasted I was unable to cash in. Anyways, bet with more caution this week, but here's who I like.

Home team in Bold

Proline:

Carolina tie Minnesota (3.20)
Peterson is looking like he won't be nearly 100% if he plays, and Steve Smith is coming off his 2 game suspension. With that being said, Minnesota is at home and will be playing desperate coming off a couple close losses. This one is fairly evenly matched and should be within 3 points.

Green Bay over Dallas (3.05)
Aaron Rodgers has looked stellar in his first two games as starter and with this Sunday night matchup being his biggest test, expect him to rise to the occassion. I see Green Bay quite similar to Philadelphia who kept Dallas close on the monday nighter, except we are now at Lambeau Field and Green Bay is getting too good of odds to pass up.

Houston tie Tennessee(3.60)
Tennessee always plays their divisional games tight and Houston, picked by many to make the postseason, is no exception. Expect this one to be a low scoring affair with it going either way... perfect for a tie pick.


Cent Sports:

Chicago (-3) over Tampa Bay (-110) $0.40
It's doubtful that Orton and the Bears will run away with this one, but they should be able to handle a 3 point spread at home against the Bucs. Griese is overmatched by a stellar as always Bears defense and with Matt Forte carrying the rock, there's always potential for a big play on the offense.

Denver (-6) over New Orleans (-105) $0.40
Denver is looking to be the Patriots of '08-'09 with their pass first offense. And so far, it seems to be working quite well. New Orleans doesn't put up much of a fight in the pass defense so Denver shouldn't have much trouble covering the spread in this one.

Cincinatti vs New York Giants over 42.0(-110) $0.65
The Bengal's offense may finally find some life against a defense that isn't the Titans or Ravens, and we saw last week how quickly the Giants can put up points against subpar teams like the Rams. Count on this one being high scoring, even if its one-sided.

That's all for now, tickets should be up some time Saturday... check back then.

Week 2 Tickets

Normally I don't bet this much in a single week, but the action was just too good so I ended up throwing down a sawbuck's worth a tickets. Let's hope I (and anyone who follows my advice) will be playing with house money for the rest of the season...

$2 -GB/NYG/DEN - $14.86
$2 - NE/TEN/DEN - $35.76
$2 - BUF/NWO/PHI-DAL tie - $65.92
$2 - GB/SF/BAL-HOU tie - $69.12
$2 - CHI/BUF/NYG/ATL - $136.38

Buffalo getting higher odds than detroit is just ludacris in my mind and both them and Green Bay have exceptional odds.

Season's Winnings to Date
-$2.00

Week 2

Recap:

Proline
Last week: 0/3
Season to Date: 0% correct - Avg. win = n/a - Expected return - 0.00

Like I said last week, I was focused on picking underdogs and none of them really panned out. However, that's not to say they weren't close...The Titans held the Jaguars in check and seriously exposed their crumbling offensive line with a bombardment of 7 sacks against Garrard and company, unfortunately the game didn't end in a tie (within 3) but it was just as tight and low scoring as I had expected... Miami played the Jets close for most of the game and if not for Favre making his best Eli Manning impression on a bizzarre 4th and 13 in the first half, who knows if the Dolphins could have come out on top... Minni matched up well versus Green Bay but Aaron Rodgers proved his worth with some impressive accuracy and scrambling ability that proved to be the trump card in this game.

Cent Sports
Last week:1/3
Season to Date: 1/3

These game unfortunately did not go as planned. I will simply apologize to Joe Flacco and take some credit for predicting Michael Turner's breakout game (unfortunately I didn't pick Atlanta).


Now on to the important stuff.... and some redemption!


The Goods:
Home team in Bold

Pro Line
Green Bay over Detroit (2.00)
Detroit lost to Atlanta last week.... badly and Green Bay, who looks just as good as the team who went 13-3 last season, should have a healthier Ryan Grant that can run all over Detroit much like Turner/Norwood did last week.

New England over New York Jets (2.55)
Yes, I know Brady is done for the season, but the Jets looked rather ordinary versus Miami last week and Cassel wasn't horrible upon filling in for Brady last week, I just don't think NE should be the underdogs here.

Denver over San Diego (2.75)
San Diego is much better than Oakland, but Cutler's gonna have his favorite target in Bmarsh back to go along with the impressive Eddie Royal, not to mention Merriman decided to opt for surgury. I think the home team will take this one, and it's definitely worth the wager at these odds.

Honorable Mentions: There were too many tempting bets to only pick 3, so here are some bonus picks....ATL over TB @ 4.80 is worth the gamble, especially with Garcia out....SF over SEA @ 4.80 is tempting too with Seattle's top 3 WR's and top RB out, but Seattle scares me at home....BUF tie JKV @ 3.80 and TEN over CIN @ 2.55 also caught my eye.


Cent Sports

Miami (+7) over Arizona (-120) $0.40
Zona is not as good of a team as the Jets and Miami hung tough vs them, 7 points is too much to give the Dolphins here.


Kansas City (-3.5) over Oakland (-110) $0.50
Oakland looked horrendous vs Denver and Kansas City was a dropped ball away from tying the Patriots late last week.

Chicago (+3) over Carolina (+105) $0.35
With Matt Forte carrying the rock, Chicago finally has a decent ground game and Orton is a slight improvement, enough to keep this game within 3.


Check out The Knight's Castle for some additional insight and a laugh or two... You know who the better prognosticator is though......

If I buy any tickets, I'll put 'em up.

Week 1

QUICK INTRO
Today kicked off the start of the '08-'09 NFL season with a seemingly routine Giants win over the Redskins that showed us that the Giant's stellar defense that was able to (mostly) shut down the Patriots offense last Februrary is still in tact for the most part. Now that we've got the first game out of the way, its on to more important things, such as the 13 games this upcoming sunday that will provide a plethora of exciting action for both the everyday sports viewer as well as the avid football fan/sports gambler such as myself.

So, without further ado, I'll jump to it and give you my picks in a week so full of potential it'll fill any bookie with trepidation.


THE GOODS
First off, however, a quick breakdown of how I'm going to do this every week...

First i'll recap the previous week's selections then i'll make my picks.

I'll do two sections, one for proline picks where a "win" is by 4 or more points and the bet is multiplied by the amount shown. And a CentSports section where I'll display my cent sports bets which are based on the money line. Cent sports is a free betting website where you can turn 10 cents into real dough if you play your cards right. Here's a link to check it out here http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=212889 where you can become my "crony" and track my winnings (and losing). Currently I am up to $2.20.

The first week is always filled with unknowns, and because of that, it seems like upsets are plentiful, hence the majority of my picks this week will be on underdogs who I think are getting good value.

PRO-LINE
home team in bold

Minnesota over Green Bay (2.75)
Minny is a young team with a lot more experience this year and i think it will pay dividends early. Green Bay minus Favre and an running back who has seen barely a rep in the entire preseason raises a lot of doubts, if Rodgers doesn't start well, things could go sour quick and Minnesota could take it quite easily.

Jacksonville tie Tennesee (3.20)
These two divisional rivals always play it close and both have strong defenses, look for a FG to win it.

Miami over Jets (3.05)
Call me crazy, but i think the dolphins may just match the number of wins they had last season after week one. Ricky brings a one-two punch to the backfield with a healthy Ronnie Brown to back him up and I think it will take Favre another week or two to find his groove in the big city.

CentSports Picks:

Cincinnati (-2) over Baltimore (-110) - $0.40
Cinci's high powered offense should be able to disposed of a Joe "Flaccid Arm" Flacco and the Ravens who may be without McGahee in the backfield. Chalk one up for Ocho Cinco. (Note: Flacco supposedly can really hurl the ball, I just like the ring of "Flaccid Arm Flacco")

New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay (+105) - $0.50
Brees should be even better than last year and Garcia is on his last legs. Count on the Saints to run away with this key early divisional matchup.

Detroit (-3) over Atlanta (-115) - $0.45
Michael Turner could shine in his first role as a primary back, but even so, there are too many things going against Atlanta; Ryan is too young and has no really good target. "Kitty Kat" Kitna with his young guns at wideout should "Bolt" past the Falcons in week 1.

If I purchase any actual sports select tickets I'll post then at a later date.